Predicting coronal mass ejections transit times : J/MNRAS/456/1542


Authors : Sudar D. orcid , Vrsnak B., Dumbovic M. (hide) , Vrsnak B., Dumbovic M. et..al

Bibcode : 2016MNRAS.456.1542S (ADS) (Simbad) (Objects) (hide)

CDS Keywords : Sun
UAT : The Sun

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Inserted into VizieR : 10-Nov-2016
Last modification : 15-Aug-2024

Predicting coronal mass ejections transit times to Earth with neural network. (2016)

Keywords : Sun coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - solar-terrestrial relations

Abstract:Predicting transit times (TT) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from their initial parameters is a very important subject, not only from the scientific perspective, but also because CMEs represent a hazard for human technology. We used a neural network (NN) to analyse TT for 153 events with only two input parameters: initial velocity of the CME, v, and central meridian distance, CMD, of its associated flare. We found that transit time dependence on v is showing a typical drag-like pattern in the solar wind. The results show that the speed at which acceleration by drag changes to deceleration is v~500km/s. TT are also found to be shorter for CMEs associated with flares on the western hemisphere than those originating on the eastern side of the ...(more)
Abstract: (hide)
We compiled a list of 153 CMEs for which their ICME counterparts were detected and their TT to Earth was measured. We used only the events for which the CME source position could be determined. All CME-ICME pairings were taken from the catalogue provided by Richardson & Cane (2010, Sol. Phys., 264, 189).


                
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